As the global economic outlook is still full of uncertainties this year, and the inventory of the semiconductor industry is not reduced fast enough to stimulate new demand, the best situation of the global semiconductor industry in 2012 can only grow slightly.

It is estimated that the global semiconductor turnover will reach US$ 323.2 billion (about NT$ 9,566.7 billion) in 2012, a slight increase of 3.3% compared with the US$ 312.8 billion in 2011, but it is only 1.25% compared with the annual growth rate of the global semiconductor industry in 2011.

For example, in 2013, the economic situation in the United States and other regions began to recover, and the growth of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of semiconductor turnover will reach 6.6-7.9% between 2013 and 2015, and the global semiconductor industry turnover will climb to 397.7 billion US dollars (NT$ 1,177.19 billion) by 2015.

In 2011 and 2012, the slow growth of semiconductor industry was mainly caused by external factors, economic recession, and the United States, Europe, Japan and medium-sized regions had their own diverse problems, and the global economic climate was not strong enough to drive growth, so semiconductors fell into a difficult situation.

Q2 orders are expected to revive.

Consumers are also a key factor affecting the growth of the semiconductor industry. Although consumers bought a lot of electronic products in the shopping season in Europe and America at the end of 2011, which reduced the inventory of semiconductors, it was not enough to increase the demand for semiconductors.

To make matters worse, in the third quarter of 2011, many companies reduced capacity utilization and reduced inventory pressure. However, these efforts failed to reduce inventory enough for new orders to appear. Therefore, the orders of semiconductor manufacturers continue to be sluggish, and it is necessary to wait until the second quarter of this year before there is a chance to rejuvenate.

Wafer foundry performance looks good

The lack of demand has a comprehensive impact on the semiconductor industry. Take IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturers) as an example, the lack of demand leads to poor capacity utilization. Therefore, IDM's capital expenditure to maintain inefficient wafer fab operation and bear double pressure has been postponed until after 2013.

For the semiconductor industry, the first half of 2012 is undoubtedly a difficult test moment. In the first quarter of the traditional off-season, the semiconductor turnover will decline, and then it will stop falling in the second quarter and rebound strongly in the third quarter. This is the pace of seasonal growth of the traditional typical semiconductor industry, and it will be carried out this year without any accidents.

The performance of wafer foundry industry will be better than that of the whole semiconductor industry, especially the wafer foundry with advanced process capacity. The main reason is that the wireless communication application market is growing rapidly, and the main components of many wireless communication devices must use advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes.

According to the demand of major semiconductor users, the amount of semiconductor purchased by global brand manufacturers in 2011 was as high as $240.6 billion, up 5% from $230.1 billion in 2010. It is estimated that the purchasing amount of global brand manufacturers' semiconductors will climb 3% again this year, reaching 247.8 billion US dollars (7,334.8 billion Taiwan dollars).

From the perspective of the application of semiconductor purchases by brand manufacturers in 2011, the amount of wireless communication ranked first, reaching $65.1 billion, accounting for 24% of all purchases. The application of wireless communication expanded, mainly due to iPhone, iPad and smart phones.